This should be the mantra of every one of us these days. From any number of high-flying politicians anywhere in the world to every one of us at the bottom of the pile. The outcome of the US Presidential elections will determine the lives of billions of us. This is what happens when one global power dominates all others and as such the Americans are voting for all of us.
The current US administration is in a sense the end of the line, for many of us. Joe Biden looms as the crumbling figurehead of the post-war world order: past its best, hypocritical, self-serving, rotten to the core. While the post-war decades brought creature comforts to many of us, happiness and fulfilment remain elusive.
The consumerism has proved to be a blind alley: a shiny neon lights pointing to oblivion. Crowded in the polluted dead end, we panic into a mayhem. Some of us are screaming blue in the face that the global warming will kill us all. Some of us are using modern weaponry in a frustrated rage against their neighbours. That might get us all to the bitter end just a little bit faster. The American voter, as anyone of us, must be looking for a way out of this pandemonium. For many Americans Trump seems to be the ticket.
For Russia and Russians, the Trump presidential win could bring a swift conclusion to the bloody mess of the Ukrainian war. But this will be on the American terms and in the American long-term interests. For the Russian administration, the exercise will be limited to selling whatever is the deal they can’t refuse to the Russian public and paying the full whack in reparations to Ukraine. Trump might be the only US politician who can make a deal with the current Russian administration, and there are politicians in Ukraine who are already positioning themselves for such an outcome.
Arguably it was not Putin’s Russia that trashed the post-war world order, and it is not for Putin’s Russia to cobble it back together. This is to give too much credit to the administration which has been deluded into thinking that it is still running a global power. And the last two years have been an exercise in cutting down Russia to size. It has been ruthless and brutal with much help (read self-harm) from the Kremlin itself.
The second stage of the cutting down is well on the way. Sanctions have started to bite in a meaningful way after a slow start. Over a few days in January we have learnt that bank transfers for Russian companies via Indian and Turkish banks have ground to a halt (source), the Western-built equipment is failing and cannot be replaced (source), there are not enough vegetable seeds to go into the ground in spring (source), there are looming US restrictions on the Russian agricultural exports (No Russian Agriculture Act). Drone attacks on Russian industrial capacity continue and might become more frequent and painful. This stage of the war be less costly in direct human casualties but will be more painful and expensive for Russia in any other way. By the time of the US elections in November 2024, it might become obvious (for the Russian administration ) that they should cut their losses and take the American offer when it comes.
The alternative for Kremlin is to run down the country to the ground by militarising the economy, nationalisation and mobilisation. This might result in food shortages, collapse of the infrastructure and the financial sector, and serious public discontent. The standard of living might deteriorate quickly. This might even lead to popular unrest and pose a direct threat to the regime. This would push the Kremlin to a deal with Ukraine, still on American terms. This outcome is more likely if the Biden administration scrapes through to win the US elections.
The isolationist Trump administration and a deal with Russia on Ukraine would mean that Europe would have to deal with the costly aftermath both politically and economically. But handled with care this could bring some stability in the European affairs.