Gazprom in mid-December: output high, export low, storage full
In the first 15 days of December, Gazprom average daily gas output was 1,520 mn cu m/d, up 68 mn cu m/d on last year, based on data released by the company.
Gazprom deliveries to domestic consumers were running below last year levels at 1,045 mn cu m/d, reversing some gains in domestic demand seen in September-November.
Gazprom export to Europe, Turkey and China fell 161 mn cu m/d YoY but increased 17 mn cu m/d MoM to 440 mn cu m/d. Based on the current data, Gazprom annual exports (including China) might reach 185 bcm in 2021, up 3.3% YoY.
Our model of Gazprom gas balance for December indicates that the company might have an estimated 61 bcm of gas in Russian storage as of end 2021, up 10 bcm YoY. Our calculations show Gazprom might have some extra 20 bcm of gas in Russian storage at the end of winter season of 2021/2022.