Gazprom plans for 2022: what the numbers tell us (report revised on 18 Jan 2022)
Gazprom management have disclosed the company’s targets and forecasts for 2022. Total gas exports (inc. Europe, Turkey, China and the FSU) are to rise 3.5 bcm to 227 bcm in 2022. The corresponding export price is expected to average $296 per 1,000 cu meters (per mcm).
Based on these numbers we estimate that Gazprom export sales to Europe only might rise from estimated 157 bcm in 2021 to 160 bcm in 2022. This includes an increase in gas supplies to Ukraine (+8 bcm YoY), a sharp drop in volumes sold via Electronic Sales Platform (ESP) for deliveries in 2022 (- 3 bcm) and lower sales under the long-term contracts (-3 bcm YoY).
To meet export targets, Gazprom would need to utilise existing transit routes, including the Yamal – Europe pipeline, more fully in the coming months, even if the company is to ship additional export volumes via the Nord Stream-2 pipeline in the second half of 2022.
We assume that export to Turkey might decline slightly from est. 27 bcm to 24 bcm in 2022, on availability of alternative supplies. Sales to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline are forecast to increase 6 bcm to 15 bcm in 2022.
Gazprom management expects average export gas price (to Europe, Turkey and the FSU) to rise from ‘over $280/mcm’ in 2021 to $296/mcm next year. This means that Gazprom might be factoring in the same level of prices for long-term contracts and a 40%+ YoY increase in oil-linked prices.
Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller said that Gazprom Group production could reach 515 bcm in 2021, up 61 bcm YoY. Considering the company’s plans for domestic deliveries and exports in the next year, we estimate that Gazprom Group output will fall 3% YoY to 500 bcm in 2022.
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