Russian-origin gas price to all export markets at $503 in November, export to Europe drops by 29% YoY
The weighted-average price of Russian-origin gas to Europe, Turkey and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) was $503 per 1,000 cubic meters (mcm) in November, compared to our forecast of $511/mcm. This is based on the Russian customs data, released on January 14. It does not include sales to China.
Russian customs report the total value of Russian-origin gas shipped across the border. We work out average prices paid for Russian gas by customers in the FSU, Europe and Turkey.
We estimate that Russian gas price to Europe only (excluding FSU, Turkey and ESP sales) was $668/mcm in November. This is at a 39% discount to the average price of TTF November futures of $1,112/mcm.
Based on our pricing model, the weighted average price of Russian-origin gas to all destinations (Europe, Turkey and the Former Soviet Union) in December was $580/mcm. The Russian gas price to Europe only (excluding FSU, Turkey and ESP sales) is estimated at $855/mcm, at a 14% discount to the average price of December TTF futures ($1,001/mcm) and 38% discount to TTF average spot price for December.
We estimate that Russian gas export to FSU, Europe, Turkey and China was 16.08 bcm in November 2021, down 22% YoY. This is based on various data points released by Russian customs and Gazprom. Detailed data for November with a breakdown of gas export by country is yet to be published by the Russian customs. However, the preliminary numbers indicate that Russian-origin gas export to Europe was down 29% YoY in November.