• The weighted-average price of Russian-origin gas to Europe, Turkey and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) was $444/mcm in October. This is based on the Russian customs data, released on December 13.

• Adjusted price to Europe only (excluding FSU, Turkey and ESP sales) was $556/mcm, according to our estimates. This is at a 31% discount to average price of TTF October futures.

• In the first ten months of the year, the total volume of Russian-origin gas sold to Europe, Turkey and China was 144 bcm (473 mn cu m/d) , up 8.5% YoY. However, in October, export volumes fell 27% YoY to 11.8 bcm (381 mn cu m/d) in our estimates. Shipments of Russian-origin gas to Germany, Netherlands and Austria dropped sharply YoY. This may be partially explained by high demand from domestic consumers and, unusually, net injections into Russian storage in October.

• Total gas exports by Gazprom to Europe, Turkey and China rose 10.9% YoY to 158.8 bcm (521 mn cu m/d) in the first 10 months of the year, according to Gazprom. Additional 15.7 bcm of gas sold by Gazprom was mostly of Russian origin (up 10 bcm YoY) with an increase in net sales from European gas storage and a small YoY decline in sales volumes of Central Asian gas, in our estimates.

• Based on our pricing model, the weighted average price of Russian-origin gas to Europe, Turkey and the Former Soviet Union in November was $511/mcm. The Russian gas price to Europe only (excluding FSU, Turkey and ESP sales) is estimated at $660/mcm, at a 40% discount to the closing price of November TTF futures.

Please see the full update below.