- In the first 15 days of January, Gazprom produced 23.1 bcm of gas, up 2.1% YoY. This means that the average daily gas output was 1,540 mn cu m/d, up 32 mn cu m/d on the same period of last year.
- The main contribution to extra output (est.19 mn cu m/d) might have come from the Chayanda field in East Siberia, which feeds the Power of Siberia pipeline to China. Gas export to China was up 50% YoY to estimated 44 mn cu m/d, based on numbers released by Gazprom.
- Gazprom deliveries to domestic consumers in the first 15 days of January were up 3.7% YoY to 16.8 bcm (1,121 mn cu m/d). The weather in Russia has been mixed in January with both cold and mild spells. This pattern might last for the rest of the winter.
- Over the first half of January Gazprom export to Europe, Turkey and China fell 41% YoY to 5.4 bcm (360 mn cu m/d). Gas export was also down 17.9% MoM (compared to December last year). We estimate that gas export to Europe only (excluding China and Turkey) was down 55% YoY to 227 mn cu m/d.
- Our model of Gazprom gas balance for January indicates that the company might have reduced Russian gas storage withdrawal by est. 195 mn cu m/d to offset for a reduction in export (down est. 248 mn cu m/d). This could mean that Gazprom gas storage will be at 52 bcm as of end January, up 14 bcm YoY. At the end of the heating season in Russia (end March), Gazprom gas storage might be as high as 38 bcm, up 23 bcm YoY.
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